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Latest Polling Information for the 2016 Marijuana Related Ballot Proposals

  • by Danielle Keane, NORML Associate November 4, 2016

    take_actionIn less than five days, nine states will be voting on marijuana related ballot proposals potentially doubling the number of states that allow the recreational use of marijuana and expanding the therapeutic benefits of marijuana use to millions of Americans. Here’s where these measures stand in the latest polls.

    Arizona: According to an October Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite poll, 50 percent of registered voters in Arizona favor Proposition 205 and 42 percent oppose it. The Regulation and Taxation of Marijuana Act allows adults twenty-one years of age and older to possess and to privately consume and grow limited amounts of marijuana (up to one ounce of marijuana flower, up to five grams of marijuana concentrate, and/or the harvest from up to six plants); it creates a system in which licensed businesses can produce and sell marijuana; establishes a Department of Marijuana Licenses and Control to regulate the cultivation, manufacturing, testing, transportation, and sale of marijuana; and provides local governments with the authority to regulate and limit marijuana businesses.

    AUMACalifornia: Arguably one of, if not the most important state this election to consider legalizing and regulating the adult use of marijuana is the golden state. Passage of the Proposition 64 would permit adults to legally grow (up to six plants) and possess personal use quantities of cannabis (up to one ounce of flower and/or up to eight grams of concentrate) while also licensing commercial cannabis production and retail sales. The measure prohibits localities from taking actions to infringe upon adults’ ability to possess and cultivate cannabis for non-commercial purposes. The initiative language specifies that it is not intended to “repeal, affect, restrict, or preempt … laws pertaining to the Compassionate Use Act of 1996.”

    According to recent October polling by Survey USA, 54 percent of likely voters support Proposition 64 and the measure “now appears positioned to become law.” For more information on the ballot proposal, please visit the AUMA website.

    Florida: Voters in Florida are getting their second chance at passing an expansive medical marijuana law this election day. In 2014, 58 percent of voters approved Amendment 2, however because state law requires a super-majority (60 percent of the vote) for constitutional amendments to pass, the amendment was narrowly rejected. It looks like this election will have different results though, with 71 percent of Floridians saying they will vote ‘yes’ on Amendment 2 according to an October poll by Saint Leo University. Passage of Amendment 2 would permit qualified patients to possess and obtain cannabis from state-licensed facilities.

    Maine: Hoping to bring legal recreational marijuana use for adults to the east coast, Maine is another exciting state to watch in the upcoming election. If enacted by voters in November, Question 1 or the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Act would allow adults to legally possess up to two and one-half ounces of marijuana and to cultivate marijuana (up to six mature plants and the entire yields of said plants) for their own personal use. The measure would also establish licensing for the commercial production and retail sale of cannabis. Retail sales of cannabis would be subject to a ten percent sales tax. Non-commercial transactions and/or retail sales involving medical cannabis would not be subject to taxation.

    Among likely voters, support for Question 1 leads by a margin of 50 percent to 41 percent, according to an October UNH Survey Center poll.

    cannabis_pillsMontana: Voters in Montana are also faced with an important marijuana related ballot decision this election day with Initiative 182. I-182 expands the state’s medical cannabis law by repealing the limit of three patients for each licensed provider, and by allowing providers to hire employees to cultivate, dispense, and transport medical marijuana. I-182 repeals the requirement that physicians who provide certifications for 25 or more patients annually be referred to the board of medical examiners. I-182 removes the authority of law enforcement to conduct unannounced inspections of medical marijuana facilities, and requires annual inspections by the state. However, the measure is presently trailing in the polls. According to an October poll, commissioned by Lee Newspapers, 44 percent of voters approve of the measure while 51 percent are against it.

    Nevada: Nevadans will also be facing the decision on whether or not to legalize the adult use and regulation of marijuana on Tuesday. Question 2, if passed, would permit adults to possess and grow personal use quantities of cannabis (up to one ounce and/or six plants) for non-commercial purposes. The measure also regulates and taxes the commercial production and retail sale of cannabis. It states, “The People of the State of Nevada find and declare that the use of marijuana should be legal for persons 21 years of age or older, and its cultivation and sale should be regulated similar to other businesses.” According to an October poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, voters favor the measure by a margin of 47 percent to 43 percent.

    Massachusetts voters appear poised to enact Question 4, which allows adults 21 years of age and older to possess up to one ounce of marijuana outside of their residences and up to 10 ounces of marijuana in an enclosed, locked space within their residences. A just-released Western New England University Polling Institute survey finds the measure leading 61 percent to 34 percent.

    Recent polling from Arkansas finds voters narrowly approving Issue 6 to regulate the use of medicinal marijuana by qualified patients, while no current polling is available regarding the passage of a similar measure in North Dakota.

    For a summary on all pending ballot proposals, as well as to see the latest videos from each of the campaigns, visit our Election 2016 page.

    Do you have election night plans? If you want to follow all of the marijuana ballot proposals being voted on check back in with us on our homepage Tuesday evening where we will be LIVE updating the results as they come in! We’ve teamed up with our friends over at cannabisradio.com to stream their live election night coverage as well and we hope you’ll join us!

    16 Responses to “Latest Polling Information for the 2016 Marijuana Related Ballot Proposals”

    1. Julian says:

      Wouldn’t wanna get live updates anywhere else! Thanks Danielle.

      Glad to see a good poll on Arkansas; I dearly hope that getting the grow at home initiative quashed in court doesn’t keep people from voting on the initiative that is left. The bull$#!+ is deep in that state. Gonna have to wade to the polls.

      Danielle; One major criticism on the overall lovely summary you wrote;
      You quoted the Las Vegas Journal Review for the numbers in Vegas? You can’t just leave that out there. For those who may not yet know by now that newspaper is owned by Casino tycoon and biggest single anti-marijuana legalization doner Sheldon Adelson. Polls from that paper MIGHT be a little bias, dontcha think?
      Here’s what I dug up on Nevada;
      https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_Marijuana_Legalization,_Question_2_(2016)#Polls

      “KTNV-TV 13 Action News and Rasmussen Reports polled 826 likely voters between October 20 and October 22, 2016. The poll showed that 53 percent of respondents supported Question 2.[53]
      In late October 2016, Bendixen & Amandi International surveyed 800 likely voters on Question 2 and found support for the measure at 47 percent. Respondents who had a positive view of Hillary Clinton (D) favored the initiative 53 to 33 percent. Respondents who had a positive view of Donald Trump (R) opposed the initiative 58 to 35 percent.”

      As I predicted, Democratic turnout is going to determine legalization in this election. So far, turnout is being lead by Latinos and women. If you don’t vote, then don’t complain.

    2. Kiel says:

      Please help! I’m confused with the Iowa elections as to who is for legalizing medical marijuana and helping the people in need! Who can I vote for to help with this! And what can I do to help move this issue forward making America weed legal again!

      • Julian says:

        Well dear God dont vote for Senator Grassley! Check the Vongressional scorecard above (unless Mark copies the rundown for you).
        Hopefully after the Democrats take the Senate tomorrow we can replace Grassley as chair of the Judiciary so he can stop holding up federal marijuana legislation. And I mean that to the degree that I even donated to Jason Kander for Senate in Missouri before I just found out he wants to drug test welfare patients! Yes, Bill Maher, these are times of lesser of two evils, which does not mean sitting it out or writing in Gumby; the lesser of two evils can mean voting for people who take the most money from Big Pharma like Hillary just to stop the orange guy from Law &Order SVU from taking back all we have achieved.

      • Julian says:

        http://norml.org/congressional-scorecard/iowa

        It’s pretty grim in Iowa. I think corn subsidies are threatened by a legal hemp and marijuana industry. We just have to remind our politicians its about the medicine and the sustainable economy, stupid.
        And we really need a better link on this website to the Congressional scorecard. “Elections 2016″ then scroll all the way to the bottom the day before elections isn’t really helping our cause. I hope we get it right before Congressional elections in 2018.

    3. Galileo Galilei says:

      IMPORTANT!!

      President Donald Trump could appoint His pal Chris Chirstie to Antorney General. He’s vowed to go after refrom.

      BUMMER!

    4. Julian says:

      Here is Leafly’s latest predictions;

      https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/election-predictions-states-will-legalize-nov-8?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend%20News%20-%20Election%20Focus%20-%20Week%2043&utm_term=Master

      They leave a more pesimistic view of Massachusetts and Arizona, claiming younger voter turn out needs to be higher (pun intended). And late undecided voters (who are full of lazy idiots; who can possibly be undecided by now?) …tend to vote for the status quo.
      After all the drama and opposition in these two states it would be very disapointing to see them fail. But after discovering how many guys at poker night last night didnt even register, Im starting to worry about the future of our nation.

      More surprising is the positive prediction of Maine. I donated a hunk of change to Maine early on mainly because Rick Steves asked. But also because I thought Maine would get neglected while we fought for Boston and Pheonix. Instead it looks like the big donors against legalization neglected Maine. Go figure.

      The good news is California, Florida and Nevada. California, of course, because its sheer size dominates the electoral votes to shift federal policy. Florida, because despite every effort to stop legalization there, a southern state is going medical and thats a big game changer through every Republican, non-voter initiative Gulf state from Florida to Texas. (Plus Ill be at Disney World next week and Im gonna lobby for medical marijuana just for waiting in line at the Dumbo ride. “What’s your symptom?” “Well Doc, how does 3 hours waiting in line with your kids all cotton candied up just so we can slowly spin in a tea cup as my bank account gets drained like my will to live?” …”Ive got some Purple Diesel for that…”)
      And Nevada… how fitting that Sheldon Adelson might effectively stop legalization in other states but cant stop the green tsunami in his own back yard?

      • Evening Bud says:

        I’m not sure what to expect, as far as recreational legalization in tomorrow’s vote. I know that I’ll be ecstatic if three states legalize, with Cali one of them.

        Before, I was pretty sure that if Cali legalized recreationally, that it’d be a game-changer. However, given the hard pushback by the prohibitionists in these last few weeks, I’m not so sure. I think it’s still gonna be a hard slog, with each victory fought for. (Though with the continually changing demographics, the “Reefer Madness” generation inexorably shrinking, prohibition may yet end in a sudden swoosh.)

    5. Overgrowem says:

      This article was stale b4 it was published.

    6. Julian says:

      http://youtu.be/vTV6Hr9RMQM

      Check out the President’s response to NORML Board member Bill Maher in an exclusive interview when Maher asks Obama (in classic friendly irony) “Isn’t about time the federal government got caught up with such progressive states as Arizona and North Dakota?”
      The President responds as usual that we should be viewing marijuana legalization through the lens of health care not criminal justice. But more importantly the President compares regulating pot like the tobacco industry, as he offers to Bill Maher that although he stopped smoking cigarettes, (wink), it was a successful (legal) educational campaign that reduced cigarette consumption. And although “I don’t believe legalization is a panacea, but we are going to have to have a more serious conversation about how we are treating marijuana and our drug laws generally.”

      Translation;
      Even though several states are about to legalize marijuana, and Democrats will likely see at least a majority Senate with a Democratic Vice President to split the vote for a liberal Supreme Court Justice, don’t expect the President to deschedule marijuana as we all hoped during the lame duck session; this is still a state by state battle and Americans are going to have to do more research to get their information and vote. But President Obama sure did a good job of staying out of the way of legalization; (wink). 😉

    7. S Williams says:

      Once California and Nevada legalize, then New York will follow suit. That will signal the end of prohibition. It will also encourage an honest discussion on how to address the serious problem of opiate abuse. Which I believe to be a health and education issue.

    8. phrtao says:

      The world is counting on this next important step in repealing cannabis prohibition. We look to America to take a lead on this because it will change the situation in many countries around the wold.

      After all it was America that started it all with Harry Anslinger then presidents such as Nixon, Reagan and Bush turned it into a war !

    9. Anderson Robinson says:

      I’m almost positive that Arizona will go through but I don’t know about the accuracy of the polling system. Everyone, please go vote tomorrow! When you’re voting keep in mind that if it gets passed big businesses with poor practices, like Copperstate Farms, will have the ability to grow large quantities of cannabis with likely no background in the business.

    10. Denny Strausser Jr says:

      This is a very exciting day for marijuana law reform, as there’s the above states voting on its legality of whether or not it will be legal.

      The results will be in tonight, and I just felt the need to post something about that. This should send a message to some other states in this region, I am hoping that Tom Wolf will consider the legalize bill after some states legalize. So I for one am hoping like crazy it does pass in more then one state over on this side of the country. PA needs a push, and it might just give the push we need.

      My fingers are crossed… Hope for a brighter future.

      • Evening Bud says:

        Denny,

        I’m with ya, hoping Maine or Mass will bring state legalization to the East. (I’m hoping Arizona will legalize for the same reason, to push NM to sanity.)

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