Market for these patients in sixteen states and D.C. estimated at between $2 – $6 billion annually

MAY 31, 2011 - We don’t know his or her name, but somewhere in one of sixteen states and the District of Columbia is America’s 1,000,000th legal medical marijuana patient. We estimate the United States reached the million-patients mark sometime between the beginning of the year to when Arizona began issuing patient registry identification cards online in April 2011.

16 states, the Capitol, and ONE MILLION legal marijuana users.

Between one to one-and-a-half million people are legally authorized by their state to use marijuana in the United States, according to data compiled by NORML from state medical marijuana registries and patient estimates.  Assuming usage of one-half to one gram of cannabis medicine per day per patient and an average retail price of $320 per ounce, these legal consumers represent a $2.3 to $6.2 billion dollar market annually.

Based on state medical marijuana laws, the amounts of cannabis these legal marijuana users are entitled to possess means there is between 566 – 803 thousand pounds of legal usable cannabis allowed under state law in America.  These patients are allowed to cultivate between 17 – 24 million legal cannabis plants.  There may possibly be more, as California and New Mexico “limits” may be exceeded with doctor’s permission and some California counties explicitly allow greater amounts, so there may be as much as 1 million pounds of state-legal cannabis allowed under state law in America.

Yet after fifteen years, one million patients, and a million pounds of legal marijuana, few if any of the dire predictions by opponents of medical marijuana have come to fruition.  Medical marijuana states like Oregon are experiencing their lowest-ever rates of workplace fatalities, injuries, and accidents.  States like Colorado are experiencing their lowest rates in three decades of fatal crashes per million miles driven.  In medical marijuana states for which we have data (through Michigan in 2008), use by minor teenagers is down in all but Maine and down by at least 10% in states with the greatest proportion of their population using medical cannabis.

Fourteen of the seventeen medical marijuana jurisdictions have mandatory registries while two (California and Colorado) offer optional registries and one (Washington) has no registry system.  Estimating California’s patient numbers is hampered by its registry system being on a county-by-county basis.  California NORML’s Dale Gieringer estimates between 2% – 3% of the state’s population are holding medical marijuana recommendations – meaning possibly over one million medical marijuana patients in California alone.

California’s patient population can be estimated from data from other medical marijuana states where patients are required to register, shown in the table below. The top two of these are Colorado and Montana, which, like California, have a well developed network of cannabis clinics and dispensaries, and which report usage rates of 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Other states, where medical marijuana is less developed, report lower rates of 1% and less. However, California is likely to be on the high side because it has the oldest and most liberal law in the nation. Significantly, California is the only state that permits marijuana to be used for any condition for which it provides relief – in particular, psychiatric disorders, such as PTSD, bipolar disorder, ADD, anxiety and depression, which account for some 20%-25% of the total patient population. Adjusting for this, usage in California could be as much as 25% to 33% higher than in Colorado and Montana, which would put it well over 3% of the population (1,125,000).

A 2%+ patient population estimate is supported by data from the Oakland Patient ID Center, which has been issuing patient identification cards to its members since 1996. The OPIDC serves patients from all over the state, but especially the greater Oakland-East Bay area of Northern California, where its cards are honored by law enforcement. As of 2010, the OPIDC had issued ID’s to 19,805 members from five East Bay cities (Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, Hayward and Richmond), amounting to 2.4% of the local population.Because the cards were issued over a period of 14 years, they include numerous patients who have lapsed, moved, or deceased. On the other hand, they do not include many other local patients who have current recommendations but never registered with the OPIDC.

We have made a similar estimate for Washington State’s patients, who are the only ones in the nation with no registry system in place (Gov. Gregoire recently signed a bill that initiates a voluntary registry).  With a law very similar to Oregon’s concerning qualifying conditions, applying Oregon’s 1.04% patient population figure gives us about 69,000 patients in Washington. However, Washington State’s larger urban centers (Seattle and Spokane), combined with a more liberal law than Oregon’s regarding who can sign recommendations (osteopaths, naturopaths, and nurse practitioners can recommend in Washington) and the lack of a state registry’s burden to patient compliance with the program suggests a higher estimate of 1.5% – 2% may be appropriate.  Numbers like Colorado’s 2.5% and Montana’s 3% are improbable as Washington lacks the greater patient access to dispensaries seen in those states.

Delaware, New Jersey, and D.C.’s programs are not operational yet, so they are not shown in our data table.  Most of the other state’s programs produce reports of patient registry numbers.  With Arizona signing up over 3,600 patients since mid-April, when it’s online-only registration went into effect, Arizona is on track to register over 30,000 patients this year.

Quick Facts about Medical Marijuana States:

• The 1.1 – 1.5 million estimated and registered medical marijuana patients in America are legally entitled to cultivate 17 – 24 million cannabis plants and possess 283 –  402 tons of harvested buds.
• The seventeen jurisdictions with medical marijuana encompass over 90 million Americans and 162 votes in the 2012 Electoral College.
• Patients make up over 3% of the population of Montana, almost 2.5% of Colorado, over 2% of California. and over 1% of Oregon, and Washington.
• After Michigan at 0.76% of population, every other medical marijuana state has less than 3 in 1,000 (0.3%) patients in its population.
• California, Colorado, Washington, Michigan, Oregon, and Montana comprise over 98% of the legal medical marijuana patients in America.
• More than 3 out of four (77% – 83%) of all medical marijuana patients live on the West Coast.
• Rhode Island and Vermont, two states where over 10% of the adult population uses marijuana monthly, have patient populations of 0.29% and 0.05%, respectively.
• Monthly teen use of marijuana is down in every medical marijuana state except Maine.
• Annual highway fatalities are down in every medical marijuana state except Rhode Island.
• Incidents of workplace injuries and illnesses are down in every medical marijuana state.

Day 2 – April 22nd

Day 3 – April 23rd

Don’t miss our previous updates including a floor report from Day 1 and coverage from the NORML/HighTimes Activism Awards. Tune in next week for a closer look at the Denver mayoral debate hosted by Montel Williams and Rep. Jared Polis’ keynote address.

In honor of our friend Ben Masel, the great Wisconsin activist who passed away this weekend from lung cancer, NORMLtv will be posting the presentation of his lifetime achievement award from this year’s Activist Awards Ceremony on Monday.

You can get the latest updates from NORMLtv by following us on Twitter.

Your home for exclusive coverage of NORML and cannabis community events

We’ve concluded the 40th Annual NORML Conference in Denver.  There are so many amazing moments, informative presentations, and great photographs to share.  We’ll be posting more throughout this week.

You can view most of the plenary sessions from all three days of the conference at our On Demand Video archive for NORML SHOW LIVE.  Click here to view all the videos from the conference.

These are the “raw feed” videos that were captured during the presentations so they are not edited.  You may have to cue ahead a minute or two to get to the beginnings of the presentations and there may be a couple that get cut off at the end by Stickam’s 65-minute time limit.

From these videos and from other hi-def recordings we are going to put together edited versions of these panels for a DVD that will be available through the NORML Online Store.

Here is the opening presentation – a look at the statistics on cannabis consumers in America (cue forward to 3:10 for the beginning):

Follow NORMLtv on Twitter for the latest updates and be sure to check out all our NORMLCon 2011 videos here.

Be sure to subscribe to NORMLtv and keep up to date on our postings by following us on Twitter.

For now, here is wishing you all a high, happy and safe 4/20.

Brought to you absolutely free by the donations of NORML supporters everywhere – do your part to help spread the growing truth about cannabis by donating today.

You can view our live streaming coverage of NORML Conference plenary panels by visiting our NORML.org page on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, or by visiting our NORML Network stream page at live.norml.org.

NORML Network’s John Doe Radio from Denver will be offering a complementary live stream from the vending and interview area of the conference at johndoeradio.com.

On Thursday you’ll get Russ Belville opening the show at 9am with dazzling graphs and statistics, followed by Keith Stroup talking about NORML at 40 years old.  Later you’ll see a panel on 2011/2012 State Marijuana Initiatives and then Montel Williams hosting a debate with six Denver Mayoral candidates.  Our final two panels will discuss the newest federal policies on medical marijuana and the evolving cannabis commercial industry.  That evening concludes with the HIGH TIMES / NORML Awards and a special three-song acoustic performance by Ziggy Marley!

On Friday we begin with Neill Franklin from LEAP delivering the perspective of law enforcement on the failure of prohibition.  Research experts will be on a panel discussing the non-THC cannabinoids in marijuana.  Two important demographics for reform – women and seniors – will be addressed in the next two panels by the NORML Women’s Alliance and a Seniors panel that includes Dr. Lester Grinspoon.  Allen St. Pierre speaks on the treatment of marijuana by the media and the day winds up with a Blogging and Social Networking panel.  That evening the Supervillians play a special $4.20 performance at the Bluebird Theater.

Our final day, Saturday, begins with breakout sessions on HIGH TIMES cultivation, Colorado’s cannabis commerce laws, medibles cooking, and expert NORML attorneys presentation on How Not to Get Busted.  At noon some of the country’s leading physicians offer perspectives on medical cannabis.  Next is our Keynote Luncheon featuring US Congressman Jared Polis followed by Paul Armentano and other experts presenting on Marijuana and Safety.   We conclude the day session with a special questions-and-answers event with Dr. Lester Grinspoon, the pioneer of medical marijuana in America.  That evening we’ll enjoy the NORML Annual Fundraiser with a performance by Greta Gaines.

Musical performance from reggae music legend Ziggy Marley

Opening remarks reflecting on NORML’s forty years of law reform advocacy from public interest lawyer and founder Keith Stroup; Closing remarks in a rare public appearance from legendary marijuana researcher and author Lester Grinspoon, M.D.

The 40^th annual conference of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana  Laws (NORML) is going to convene next Thursday, April 21 – Saturday, 23 at the Grand Hyatt in Denver, Colorado.

The theme for this year’s annual conference is Coming of Age: Cannabis and Commerce. A complete conference agenda and speakers’ bios are now online.

Why Colorado?
Colorado has emerged as the geographic center of legal medical cannabis in America—the state has licensed hundreds of medical cannabis dispensaries, cultivation centers and medical edible manufacturers thereby creating the legislative impetus recently for the state to further adopt laws that regulate, tax and control the cultivation, sale and use of medical cannabis.

U.S. Representative Jared Polis (D-CO), the conference’s keynote speaker, who publicly endorses legalizing cannabis for responsible adult use and regulated sales, will articulate this point.

His public remarks are in advance of anticipated federal legislation to be introduced in this session of Congress to have the federal government acknowledge the failure of 75 years of Cannabis Prohibition and that the states—like his state of Colorado—can craft functional policy alternatives to prohibition laws that don’t compromise public safety, collect needed (and otherwise uncollected) tax revenue and licensing fees; respecting both the public’s will for reform and the Constitution.

Millions of dollars of taxes and fees have already been collected by the state of Colorado, future state budgets now include the anticipated revenues and state bureaucracies are being created for (and funded by) these cannabis-related businesses.

Cannabis commerce has come of age during the country’s longest and steepest recession, Colorado is at the center of this public discussion and positive changes in laws. The nation’s leading cannabis law reformers, researchers, legal advocates and cannabusiness owners will all be front and center at NORML’s 40^th annual conference.

Register Now, Seats Going Fast
The host hotel’s rooms are already sold out. All of the conference vending and sponsorship opportunities have also been snatched up as well! However, there are still some registration tickets available (including day passes). Please register now to insure a spot at the most important cannabis law reform conference in years.

Please register now before both 1.) the conference registrations and NORML socials tickets sell out and 2.) pricing increases next week for those attendees who don’t pre-register online or by calling 202-483-5500.

Hope to see you and yours…one mile high next week on Colorado’s front range!

Rep. Jared Polis: Federal government shouldn’t be banning marijuana
via CBS News

Colorado Democratic Rep. Jared Polis said Wednesday that the federal government should not be in the business of regulating marijuana use by Americans.

“I don’t see a federal role,” he said in a “Washington Unplugged” interview, noting that his state is among those that allow medical marijuana use. (There is also a push in Colorado for full legalization.) “I don’t think that the federal side should be coming in and second guessing what states are doing.”

“Just as the policy of prohibition failed nationally with alcohol – it’s now up to states and counties – I think we should do the same with marijuana,” he said.

… Polis said it’s apparent that “we are not winning the drug war,” pointing to increased drug abuse and the flow of drugs across the southern border from criminal cartels.

“Drug abuse is fundamentally a medical issue, a health issue, more than a criminal issue,” he said.
The lawmaker asked people to ask themselves how they would want someone close to them to be treated if they were struggling with drug abuse.

“Do you think that person would have been better served by being in jail for several years or getting the help they needed to end their chemical dependency?” he asked.

Polis also pointed to a recent study finding that marijuana is already a $1.7 billion industry.

“It’s already created thousands of jobs in Colorado, several millions dollars of tax revenue – I really think that’s just the tip of the iceberg with regard to the potential of the industry in terms of job creation, revenue creation for the government,” he said.

You can watch multiple video clips from Polis’ interview here.

Like what you hear? You can hear more from Rep. Polis at NORML’s upcoming national conference, April 21 through April 23 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Denver, Colorado. Congressman Polis is this year’s Conference keynote speaker and will deliver Saturday’s luncheon lecture.

You can learn more about this year’s NORML Conference agenda and social events online here. Conference registration information is online here.

We look forward to seeing you in Denver.

Well, all right…

Looks like a lot of folks want to convene and talk up cannabis law reform in Denver!

With no further ado…

Please check out the current schedule, which features three confirmed and prominent speakers:

• NORML founder Keith Stroup commenting on NORML at 40-years-old
• Marijuana maverick and Harvard Medical School’s Lester Grinspoon, MD
• Congressman and supporter of legalization Jared Polis (D-CO)

Some equally notable and popular speakers will be announced soon! Check out the conference agenda here.

Register online for the conference here (there are discount rates for senior citizens and students).

Want to stay at the Grand Hyatt, the conference’s host hotel? You’ll have to move fast to snap up the last of these steeply discounted hotel rooms here.

Conference sponsorship packages and vending table opportunities for cannabis-related businesses, services or organizations are still available, though, these too have nearly sold out this year as well. Contact Kim for more information!

Socials and NORML fundraiser: A La Carte
Lastly, this year’s conference planning committee is still working on procuring top-notch musical acts and performers for some of the event’s awesome socials and fundraisers. At this time, the online registration does not have options to sign up for these events, but, the information will be posted online ASAP and directly marketed via email to all conference attendees.

This year’s national conference convenes in the wake of the most important political effort to date to legalize cannabis in the narrow defeat of Prop. 19 in California this past November and in advance of 2012—a year that by all accounts will be the busiest ever regarding legalization initiatives and legislation in a number of states and in the United States Congress.

If you’re concerned with reforming cannabis laws in your lifetime, please make the necessary arrangements to join the cannabis legalization movement’s most important conference—the annual NORML national conference—this April 21-23 in the beautiful and amazingly cannabis-friendly city of Denver, Colorado.

Cannabem liberemus,

Allen St. Pierre
Executive Director
NORML