Ban With The Bull, Chill With The Bear: The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition

  • by Allen St. Pierre, Former NORML Executive Director July 21, 2009

    [Editor’s note: The July 2009 issue of Socionomics has an interesting essay and series of graphs that seeks to look 5-10 years into future regarding the decidedly declining public, political and business support for cannabis prohibition. Socionomics is a subscription based publication, and the graph and first 500 words of the essay are re-printed with permission.]

    The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition


    History shows that mood governs society’s tolerance for recreational drugs. A rising social mood produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; a falling mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation. In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. Eventually, as mood continued to sour, the government finally capitulated to public cries for decriminalization as a means to end the corruption and bloodshed.

    We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs. The March 1995 Elliott Wave Theorist first forecasted the Drug War’s repeal at the end of the bear market and in 2003, EWT stated that during the decline, “The drug war will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized.”

    The Case of Marijuana

    Social mood influences people’s actions and their social judgments. In times of positive mood, people have the resources to enforce their social desires. They can afford to express the black and white moral issues preferred during bull markets, and drug abuse is a favorite target.

    During times of negative mood, on the other hand, society’s priorities change. People have other, bigger worries and begin to view recreational drugs as less dangerous, if not innocuous in offering stress relief, pain reduction and the ability to cope with the pressures of negative social mood.

    Over the past 100 years, governmental activities have manifested these changing attitudes. During periods of rising mood, policymakers stepped up regulation of cannabis. During periods of falling mood, they eased those same stances.

    As shown in Figure 1, each legislative attempt to restrict marijuana use followed at least three, and in most cases four or five, bull-market years. In 1937, Congress passed the Marijuana Tax Act. The law banned casual consumption of the drug and limited its use to specific medical and industrial purposes. Franklin Roosevelt signed the law at the top of a roaring bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average having quintupled from its 1932 low. The real crackdown, however, came over a decade later during the massive wave III bull move.

    The Boggs Act, which increased drug use penalties fourfold, and the Narcotics Control Act, which increased penalties another eightfold, both came during the most powerful portion of wave 3 of III of the bull market. Then in 1958, after four more years of rising mood, Wisconsin farmers harvested the last legal crop of U.S.-grown hemp. In 1989, President George H.W. Bush’s famous “War on Drugs” speech came on the heels of seven years of net progress in the stock market. In 1999, a year before the top of the Grand Supercycle bull market, the DEA banned the importation of hemp products that contained even a trace of Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), marijuana’s psychoactive ingredient.

    More at Socionomics.net

    40 responses to “Ban With The Bull, Chill With The Bear: The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition”

    1. […] here to see the original:  Ban With The Bull, Chill With The Bear: The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition Share and […]

    2. R.O.E. says:


      That last statement is just so assinine! The DEA….DEA banned all hemp products containing even a trace of THC!! How stupid. What are people going to do?Gather up a ton of hemp and smoke it forthat small trace of THC. What a bunch of SHIT! Its time people. Time to shut these goons down,time to shrink government, time to put our police officers back to the job of protecting and serving on the local level for local folks…not this freaking wod monster machine!

      I swear I loose more hair (from pulling it out and stress)everytime I read things like this.

    3. The Oracle says:

      The DEA lost in court on the ban on hemp items–the whole poppy seed precedent and trace amounts of THC do not lead to positive pee tests.

      Why have Weber and Spector not yet announced their budget cuts favorable to cannabis legalization?

      I’m hoping it’s because Obama doesn’t want to upset the apple cart he’s got going on health care by telling people up front, so one can only hope that once figures come out for how much universal health care and stimulus programs for Change (he ran on change) that the mood will be falling to the point where no one of consequence will listen to the prohibitionists any longer. (My European counterparts tell me that there is another wave of bad news to hit the financial sector in the U.S. because Americans have assumed too much credit card debt and are not able to pay. I’m waiting for that shoe to drop on the market.)

      I want this done well before Christmas of 2009, even if it doesn’t go into effect until tax year 2010. The sooner the better. Legalize cannabis now.

      Legalize now!

    4. shaun landers says:

      this has got to be one of the best articles i have ever read because it backs up interesting facts with proof that you can research yourself personally we as a people need to remember something all you potheads out there please i repeat please when it becomes “legal” dont take it upon yourselves to screw this up for the rest of us by going outside and casually6 lighting up in front of a cop just to prove you can because remember there is such a thing as pi (public intox) for the laments i want to smoke recreationaly damn it let it be done right parents keep your kids off drugs its an adult thing and you know it just follow along the lines that we all did

    5. R.O.E. says:

      Also, did anyone see the story on yahoo news about mexican drug cartels killing a southamerican drug boss? These cartels are expanding thier reach and power thanks to our wonderful WOD’s and the prohibs that support it. I think it to be strange. Prohibs say we support terrorist and cartels by using drugs and cannabis…lol well so are they by supporting the machine(WOD’s) that supports these terrorists and cartels.

      Prohibs…Stop supporting these terrorists and cartels!! Take the profit out of drugs and cannabis! Dismantle your policies that support them.!!

    6. :[]: says:

      end the racist prohibition !!

    7. HMS says:

      Thank you NORML. I love that everyday I can come to your site and read yet another piece of news showing the end is near.

      #4 I’ve been hearing the same thing. We’re quick to get back into our fat and lazy routines like nothing ever happend because the past two months have “been better”

      #5 You bring up a good point. However, I’d like to be able to sit on the front porch of the house I own and smoke up and have a beer at the same time instead of smoking in the backyard and enjoying beer on the porch.

    8. Bob says:

      I am very happy to see progress NORML. I will send more money next month keep up the good work.

    9. Joel: The other Joel says:

      I just hope that federal government will do away with The Marijuana Stamp Act of 1937 and The Control Substance Act of 1970. Those two laws are made to keep marijuana illegal. The Control Substance Act of 1970 was a trick made by President Richard Nixon to place marijuana on the same catagory as heroin, and thus, created the Drug Enforcment Angency to make it permanent. Remember, Richard Nixon hated the smart-ass hippie pot smokers, the intellectuals, and the media.